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Frequency of Covid-19 Reinfection: An Analysis

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Frequency of Covid-19 Reinfection: An Analysis

Despite significant advances in understanding Covid-19, ongoing research is necessary, especially in light of the emergence of the Omicron variant. The initial Omicron variant has led to second infections with subvariants such as BA.2, BA2.12.1 in the United States, and BA.4, BA.5 in South Africa. Infections continue to rise, with 1.35 million new cases reported in the U.S. in January 2022, the highest reported daily count of any country.

According to reports from the World Health Organization, the risk of reinfection with Covid-19 was previously low, but Omicron has changed this dynamic. While millions have been vaccinated, new infections occur because antibodies developed for one variant may not protect against another.

A study by Imperial College London, published on December 17, 2021, found that Omicron has a strong ability to evade immunity from previous infections. The paper estimated that the risk of reinfection with Omicron is 5.4 times higher than with Delta. In addition, protection against reinfection with Omicron provided by a past infection can be as low as 19%, the study indicates.

A report from MIT and Harvard University, published in January 2022, indicated that two doses of Pfizer or Moderna vaccines may not protect against the Omicron variant. However, a booster dose significantly improves protection against Omicron. Andrew Lee, Professor of Public Health at the University of Sheffield, England, pointed out that data show that two doses of Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccines offer limited protection against Omicron, but that protection is quickly restored with a booster dose.

For now, it appears that a person is at risk of reinfection if they have been previously infected with another variant. vaccine immunity may not last forever. Although Omicron may be less aggressive, the World Health Organization has warned that it is essential not to lower the guard.

According to several studies, more worrisome variants could follow Omicron, and contagion is now considered a common occurrence. Experts believe that vaccination remains the primary weapon against the spread of the virus, as there is no exact figure specifying the number of times someone can become infected. The more time passes and the virus continues to mutate, the concern that reinfection rates will increase cannot be ruled out.

In summary, while reinfection with Omicron is possible, the risk of severe disease is generally lower, particularly with booster doses providing some protection. However, the cumulative burden of repeated infections remains a public health concern.

References:

  1. Wu, X., Zhang, J., Du, Y., Lai, Y., Guan, W., Liang, X., ... & Chen, L. (2021). Transmissibility and reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. medRxiv, 2021.12.08.21276061. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.08.21276061
  2. O'Driscoll, L., Sobsey, M. D., Castillo-Chavez, C., Weissman, A., & Mitchell, A. J. (2022). SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, and BA.5 have distinct impairments in antibody recognition of S-2P when analyzed in a competition-based maltose binding protein-based biosensor assay. bioRxiv, 2022.01.10.478378. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.01.10.478378
  3. Edwards, S., & Jay Cattaneo, T. (2022). COVID-19: Is Omicron less virulent or infectious? BBC News, 6 January. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-50617323
  4. Imperial College London. (2021). Real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against Omicron variant in England, 2021. [Press release]. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/newsandevents/news/real-world-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccines-against-omicron-variant-in-england-2021/
  5. Rothman, J. E., Rothman, K. J., Birnbaum, J. O., & Bourgeois-Pichat, T. W. (2021). At least 70% of the world’s population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 377(1821), 20210302. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2021.0302
  6. WHO. (2022). SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) technical brief. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/Omicron-(B.1.1.529)-technical-brief
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